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Prediction for CME (2021-01-02T11:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-01-02T11:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16304/-1
CME Note: This CME is preceded by the 2021-01-01T22:00Z CME. An eruption signature is visible in SDO AIA 193/304/171, showing some dark filament material rising from approximately S40W15 beginning around 2021-01-02T09:00Z with rising material/opening field lines also visible beyond the western limb in the view of STA EUVI 195. This is followed by a clear liftoff of filamentary material in SDO AIA 304 at 10:45Z, and then significant darkening seen along the entire filament from ~S10 to S40 and W00 to W30 beginning around 11:00Z. The effects of this CME are likely combined with the 2021-01-01T22:00Z CME. ARRIVAL SIGNATURE: From Lan Jian: This event should be a HSS with CME embedded. There seems to be a sector boundary at about Jan. 5 12UT. The smooth magnetic field rotations concur with the second B pile-up and second Vp increase. I dont see a shock associated with the event. The flux rope part is from about 0 to 6 UT on Jan. 6. It is possible Earth only encountered the CME at the flank.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-01-06T00:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-01-05T05:59Z
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2021-01-02 16:55
- Time at C2: 2021-01-02 11:24
- Radial speed: 617.0 km/s
- Half angle: 35 deg
- Eruption location: S09W17
Inferences:
 - No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
 - In-situ shock speed: 591.10 km/s
 - Shock arrival time: 2021-01-05 05:59 (i.e. predicted transit time: 66.60 hours)

Lead Time: 74.60 hour(s)
Difference: 18.02 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2021-01-02T21:24Z

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